Day 81

Day 81:

In UK schools, a concept is taught in GCSE Maths lessons known as 'Logic trees' (these can also be called 'number trees', 'game trees', or other names involving trees). They are designed to explore all of the different possible outcomes of an event by branching off from different variables. A very basic logic tree will have two different possible outcomes to a variable, often 'yes' or 'no'. These are very helpful in maths, since it is (at least at GCSE level) a binary and logical subject. Unlike in a subject like English Language, where what is 'correct' can be quite subjective, the answer to a maths question is either correct or incorrect; 'Yes' or 'No'. They can be used for solving algebra questions, such as 'calculate the value of Y', by going through each of the possible answers given with a series of 'Yes' or 'No' questions. These questions are also completely logical and finite, such as 'Is X greater than 7?'.  They can be quite complex, but you will eventually reach the correct answer to the problem.

However, these logic trees have also been applied beyond mathematics, such as in business and logic puzzles. Some businesses use logic trees to make decisions about what contractor they should go with, or who in the office drank all of the orange juice pouches from the communal fridge. Unfortunately, some of these variables are more complicated than just a 'Yes' or 'No' answer, or only having two outcomes. As a result, these trees can grow very, very quickly, and take a very long time to process. This is because the world that we live in is not binary, and the total amount of different outcomes to some situations can be realistically unknowable.

For example, you could try to use a logic tree to try to find out what time you should set off to a location where you have agreed to meet a friend. If we know for certain that 'Geoff' will arrive at the swimming pool at 5pm, at what time should we arrive? The answer to this is very obvious; 5pm, perhaps at 4:55pm, if we want to be the first one there. We could try to arrive at 4pm, but we would have a lot of waiting to do once we got there, and we could try to arrive at 6pm, but Geoff will have already gone home by the time we arrive. So, we know that the most logical time to arrive at is 5pm, so we should take decisions to try to arrive at the swimming pool as close to 5pm as possible.

The main variable here is that we don't know exactly how long it would take for us to get to the swimming baths, since each journey will be different. Even if we know that the average drive to the swimming baths is about 20 minutes, we have no way of knowing for certain how long it will take this time. There could be lots of traffic, or the car could break down, or there could be a road closure, or countless other things could happen that I couldn't possibly think of. This means that our logic tree cannot possibly account for every scenario, so we must select the ones that we deem to be the most likely or the most important. 

Those decisions are subjective, and we may not even realise that we are making them. If you've recently been experiencing car trouble, then you are more likely to give more weight to that than something else. Also, notice how all of the random variables that I selected all relate to delays, which would make us late to the swimming baths, and none that would make us early. This is most likely because we often deem being late as worse than being early (I even suggested that we should attempt to arrive early). We instinctively award them more weight, even though, mathematically speaking, being 7 minutes early is just as bad as being 7 minutes late, because it is not the logically correct time. All of this doesn't even consider that Geoff is also a person, who is facing the exact same logic tree that we are. The idea that we could be certain that he will arrive at 5pm is nonsense, just as there is no way for us to be sure that we will arrive at 5pm. 

For basic scenarios and broad simplifications, the use of logic trees can give you some idea of what the correct direction to go in might be. However, be sure to keep in mind that the scenarios you have chosen to include may not be the ones that will arise, for better or for worse. The world that we live in cannot be accurately predicted. There are infinite variables and finite data with which we make decisions, which is why even large corporations often make catastrophic mistakes. In knowing this, and acknowledging that life will always throw things that we didn't expect at us, then it can make it slightly easier not to try and overthink things.